A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
