Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
